Week 6 waivers, 2026. The run after Week 5's games. What players cost off waivers across the member leagues whose results we have, and how close our recommended bids came. Updated every Wednesday after waivers process.
Every week we have published · the historical market
Overall: B (5.6 points missed)
Key players: no letter this week.
Last week: Overall B (9.4 points missed), Key players B (5.5).
Each of our three bids makes a promise: P60 should win 60% of the players somebody else also bids on, P75 75%, P90 90%. Winning up to 5 points more than the promise counts as on target, because we would rather overpay than lose the player. Below the promise, every point counts. Above that band, only the extra counts.
Overall checks each promise separately for our low, middle and high bids, across every contested claim our board priced. A claim counts as contested when the winner paid at least $1 and another team also bid at least $1: a $0 bid never competes, because $1 beats it. This week grades the player-specific bid each card leads with.
Key players are the players our leagues bid on hardest this week: 3 or more managers bidding in at least 15% of our leagues, at a median winning bid of 15% of budget or more (quarterbacks counted only in superflex and two-QB leagues). Each player is graded separately: how often our P60 bid would have won that player, against the same 60% to 65% target. Every player counts the same.
No player drew that kind of interest this week, so there is no key-player letter.
Grading scale, in points missed: A under 5, B under 10, C under 15, D under 25, F at 25 or more. Overall is measured on 906 contested claims (re-graded Oct 23 under our current rule, the one every week now uses; before that this page read B, 6.0 points missed on 1,129 claims). How we grade, and every change to it.
The short version:
How we looked at it:
How to find the week's best matchups. Every game has a total, the points the sportsbooks expect both teams to score together, and a spread. A defense's matchup is the opponent's expected score: half the total, minus half the spread if the defense's team is favored, plus half if it is the underdog. This week the Chiefs are favored by 8.5 over the Chargers in a game with a total of 42.5. Half of 42.5 is 21.25, and half of 8.5 is 4.25, so the Chargers are expected to score 17. Do that for every defense you could pick up, and the three lowest numbers are the week's best matchups. Lines move between waivers and kickoff, so the top 3 you see on waiver day can shift. Our history uses one line per game, which may not match the line on waiver day.
The matchup matters a lot. When the opponent was expected to score 17 points or fewer, defenses scored 9.6 points on average, and 41% scored 10 or more. When the opponent was expected to score more than 24.5, they scored 5.0, and 17% reached 10.
Big bids are not aimed at the best matchups. 26% of over-the-top bids went to a defense with a top-3 matchup, against 28% of normal bids. The defenses that drew big bids looked the same as the ones won cheaply on last week's points, points so far this season and real defense quality. The size of a bid says nothing about the matchup. Some of this is not a mistake: the defenses with the best matchups may already be on rosters. Big bids on defenses ranked 4th to 12th scored about 1 point less than the best cheap alternative. Ranked 13th or worse, 3 points less.
For a top-3 matchup, a big bid buys nothing extra. Those defenses scored within a quarter point of the best cheap alternative and outscored it 54% of the time. The cheap alternative's opponent was expected to score only about 1 point more. Top-3 defenses won with normal bids did just as well. The size of the bid does not change the points.
Over a month, paying extra showed no gain. Even a good real defense with an easy next four games only matched streaming the best cheap defense each week. An over-the-top bid on one scored the same as a normal bid. A good real defense is in the top third by expected points allowed per play so far that season. An easy schedule is in the easiest third by the same measure for the offenses it faces.
Buying early for the fantasy playoffs did not beat streaming either. Defenses picked up in Weeks 6 to 13 with an easy playoff schedule scored 2.4 to 2.9 points a game less in the playoff weeks than streaming the best cheap defense. Good real defenses with easy playoff schedules did better, but still about 1 point less.
Our board bids too high on defenses, and does not look at the matchup. P60 is the bid we expect to win 60% of the claims where someone else also bids. On defenses it has been a median 4.6% of budget. When two or more managers bid on a defense, the typical winning bid is 2.5%. Our P60 won 74% of 502 contested defense claims, not 60%.
Our read:
Free-agent pickups after waivers are not counted.
Ranked by how many leagues saw two or more managers bid on the same player. That is a different list from the most-claimed players: half of week-one bids are for nothing, and a free add is not a contested claim. Team defenses are left out here; they are in the full table below.
Germie Bernard WR
Wanted in 285 leagues. 214 of those turned into a real auction with two or more managers bidding. The winner paid 11.0% of budget, and had to go 5.0% past the next-best offer. Half the winning bids landed between 6.0% and 17.0%, so the market did not agree. 3% of the leagues that won paid nothing at all.
Bar: how often the bid won. White tick: what it promised.
Dameon Pierce RB
Wanted in 222 leagues. 126 of those turned into a real auction with two or more managers bidding. The winner paid 7.0% of budget, and had to go 4.0% past the next-best offer. Half the winning bids landed between 2.2% and 12.0%, so the market did not agree. 11% of the leagues that won paid nothing at all.
Bar: how often the bid won. White tick: what it promised.
Brenton Strange TE
Wanted in 128 leagues. 70 of those turned into a real auction with two or more managers bidding. The winner paid 5.0% of budget, and had to go 4.0% past the next-best offer. Half the winning bids landed between 2.0% and 9.6%, so the market did not agree. 12% of the leagues that won paid nothing at all.
Bar: how often the bid won. White tick: what it promised.
MarShawn Lloyd RB
Wanted in 86 leagues. 65 of those turned into a real auction with two or more managers bidding. The winner paid 12.0% of budget, and had to go 6.5% past the next-best offer. Half the winning bids landed between 5.0% and 19.2%, so the market did not agree. 5% of the leagues that won paid nothing at all.
Bar: how often the bid won. White tick: what it promised.
Pat Freiermuth TE
Wanted in 170 leagues. 65 of those turned into a real auction with two or more managers bidding. The winner paid 3.0% of budget, and had to go 2.0% past the next-best offer. Half the winning bids landed between 1.0% and 6.0%, so the market did not agree. 17% of the leagues that won paid nothing at all.
Bar: how often the bid won. White tick: what it promised.
Before you bid, the board gives you a price at each of three rungs. P60 is built to win 60% of the players somebody else is also bidding on; P75 and P90 are the same idea at higher confidence.
Only claims where two or more managers bid. A bid counts as a win when it would have beaten the manager who actually won, by a dollar.
Our P60 bid ran between 11% and 17% of budget across these rows. What players actually took to win ran from 3% to 27%. This table groups players by what they ended up costing, which nobody knows until waivers run. A player lands in the top row because someone bid big, so no bid made in advance wins most of those. It shows where the money went, not whether our number was right. Grouped by what our P60 said instead, it won 50% when it said under 8% of budget and 77% when it said 22% or more, against a 60% promise.
When our P60 did win a contested claim, it overpaid a median 6.0% of budget over what it took. Our target is a max of 5%: a small overpay beats losing the player, but it should not be more than that.
| What it took to win | Claims | What our P60 bid | How often P60 would have won |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 5% of budget | 174 | 11% | 98% |
| 5% to 10% of budget | 230 | 13% | 91% |
| 10% to 20% of budget | 295 | 14% | 59% |
| 20% or more of budget | 207 | 17% | 15% |
Every card leads with one number: the minimum bid when we expect nobody else to bid, or P60 when we expect other managers to bid. This is how often that call was right. It is not part of the grade yet.
| What happened | Card led with P60 | Card led with the minimum | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Someone else bid too906 claims | 79%right: led with P60 | 21%wrong: led with the minimum and lost | ||
| Nobody else bid2,334 claims | 49%wrong: overpaid a median 14% | 51%right: the minimum won it |
| Promise | How often it woncontested claims | What we saidshare of budget | What it tookshare of budget | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P60906 claims | 60%promised | 65%+5% vs the promise | 14.0%what we said | 11.0%3.0% high |
| P75906 claims | 75%promised | 83%+8% vs the promise | 22.0%what we said | 11.0%11.0% high |
| P9098 claims | 90%promised | 93%+3% vs the promise | 28.4%what we said | 11.2%17.1% high |
P90 was shown on far fewer players than P60, so it has fewer claims to score. Grey cells are too thin to count toward the grade.
Every card now leads with a player-specific bid. It adjusts your league's price for how widely a player is rostered across the country, how often he is being added, and player sentiment. The previous method, the same price for every player at a position, is still shown beneath it. Both are graded here on the same contested claims, with the same rules.
| Grade | P60 wonoverall | P60 wonlow bids | P60 wonhigh bids | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New method: player-specific | Bmissed by 6 points | 65%of 906 contested claims | 50%when it said under 8% | 77%when it said 22% or more |
| Previous method: same price per position | Bmissed by 8 points | 66%of 906 contested claims | 49%when it said under 8% | 83%when it said 22% or more |
Our grade this week is a B, the same as last week.
More players drew a second bidder than usual: 33% of claims, against 23% in a typical week like this one. Tight ends rose the most. 32% of tight end claims had two or more bidders, about double the usual 15%.
Running backs were cheaper than usual. The typical winning running back bid was 8.0% of budget, against about 12.7% in a typical week. Receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks all cost a little more.
Germie Bernard was the player most leagues fought over. In 186 leagues, two or more managers bid on him. The winner usually paid 11% of budget. Our P60 said 14%. That won him 55% of the time, a little short of the 60% it promises.
On the other four of the top five, we bid too high. Dameon Pierce went for a median 7.5% of budget. Our P60 said 16%, and won him 82% of the time. MarShawn Lloyd went for 11.5%. Our P60 said 19.8%, and won him 72%. The two tight ends, Brenton Strange and Pat Freiermuth, went for 5% and 3%. Our P60 said 15% and 13%, and won them about 9 times in 10.
No player drew enough bidding this week for a key-player letter.
Updated October 23. We now grade every week under one rule, which counts a claim only when another team bid at least $1. The tables on this page use that rule. Some numbers below were written under the old rule, so they no longer match the tables.
Our low bids got better. When our P60 said a player would go for under 8% of budget, it won 63% of the time. That is on target. Last week, counting the late private leagues, it won 48%.
Our high bids still run high. When P60 said 22% or more, it won 85%. Across every contested claim it won 74%, against a 60% promise. When it won, it overpaid a median 8% of budget. Our target is about 5%.
We still suggest P60 too often when nobody else is bidding. Each player on our board leads with one bid: the minimum when we expect no other bidders, or P60 when we expect some. This week the board led with P60 more often in both cases. It did on 71% of the claims that drew a second bidder, against 64% last week. And it did on 46% of the claims nobody else bid on, against 37%. Those 760 claims would have gone for the minimum.
We fixed a counting error on team defenses. ESPN and Sleeper name a defense differently, so the same defense showed up as two players. From this week, and on last week's re-scored page, each defense is counted once.
Last week's report now includes the private leagues that came in late: 433 leagues and 1,213 contested claims. Its grade stays a B.
We still owe you a Gordon versus Wright follow-up. It comes with the Week 7 report. The Shipley follow-up comes with Week 8.
Measured across 434 FAABFAX member leagues whose waiver results we have for this run. Private leagues reach us only when a member refreshes from their own browser, usually about a week later. This page was re-scored the following Wednesday to include the ones that arrived late. Aggregates only. No league, team or manager is named anywhere on this page, and a player appears only when at least 5 leagues bid on them.
Prices are shares of budget, not dollars. Leagues run different budgets. A $50 bid in a $100 league and a $500 bid in a $1,000 league are the same bid, and both show here as 50%. That is the only way to put every league in one table.
Two different prices, and the gap between them matters. "A typical bid" is the middle of every offer made on that player, winners and losers together. "The winning bid" is what the manager who won actually paid, so it sits at the top of that range by definition. When the two are far apart, a few managers wanted that player badly and the rest did not.
"Won by" is the winning bid minus the next-highest bid. It needs the losing bids to exist at all, and it tells you something the winning bid alone cannot: whether the winner had to stretch. A small gap means everyone agreed on the price. A big gap means the winner could have paid less and still won.
| Player | Leaguesthat bid | A typical bidshare of budget | The winning bidshare of budget | Won byover the next-best bid | Two or more bidders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germie BernardWR | 285836 bids | 6.0%middle of all bids | 11.0%6.0% to 17.0% | 5.0%in 207 auctions with a clear winner | 75%of those leagues |
| Dameon PierceRB | 222434 bids | 3.5%middle of all bids | 7.0%2.2% to 12.0% | 4.0%in 122 auctions with a clear winner | 57%of those leagues |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 86248 bids | 6.0%middle of all bids | 12.0%5.0% to 19.2% | 6.5%in 64 auctions with a clear winner | 76%of those leagues |
| Brenton StrangeTE | 128252 bids | 2.5%middle of all bids | 5.0%2.0% to 9.6% | 4.0%in 69 auctions with a clear winner | 55%of those leagues |
| Kansas City ChiefsDEF | 210457 bids | 1.6%middle of all bids | 3.0%1.0% to 4.0% | 1.0%in 125 auctions with a clear winner | 61%of those leagues |
| Woody MarksRB | 50149 bids | 8.7%middle of all bids | 12.0%6.0% to 22.2% | 6.0%in 32 auctions with a clear winner | 66%of those leagues |
| Kimani VidalRB | 134203 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 4.0%1.0% to 9.0% | 1.8%in 36 auctions with a clear winner | 32%of those leagues |
| Darius CooperWR | 88117 bids | 3.7%middle of all bids | 6.0%1.0% to 11.5% | 3.5%in 18 auctions with a clear winner | 23%of those leagues |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | 170264 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 3.0%1.0% to 6.0% | 2.0%in 62 auctions with a clear winner | 38%of those leagues |
| Kendrick BourneWR | 125212 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 4.0%1.0% to 7.4% | 3.0%in 45 auctions with a clear winner | 40%of those leagues |
| Jordan LoveQB | 100222 bids | 3.0%middle of all bids | 5.0%2.0% to 13.0% | 3.5%in 57 auctions with a clear winner | 60%of those leagues |
| Will ShipleyRB | 3970 bids | 4.5%middle of all bids | 11.3%3.2% to 16.8% | 5.3%in 13 auctions with a clear winner | 46%of those leagues |
| Kendre MillerRB | 119187 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 3.0%0.7% to 7.0% | 2.0%in 43 auctions with a clear winner | 39%of those leagues |
| Samaje PerineRB | 6178 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 4.0%0.1% to 6.0% | 0.0%in 10 auctions with a clear winner | 20%of those leagues |
| New England PatriotsDEF | 115235 bids | 1.0%middle of all bids | 2.0%0.0% to 4.0% | 1.0%in 68 auctions with a clear winner | 61%of those leagues |
| CeeDee LambWR | 666 bids | 20.4%middle of all bids | 35.9%34.0% to 36.4% | 4.3%in 6 auctions with a clear winner | 100%of those leagues |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 105161 bids | 1.0%middle of all bids | 2.0%0.0% to 5.4% | 0.0%in 33 auctions with a clear winner | 35%of those leagues |
| Jayden DanielsQB | 1742 bids | 5.2%middle of all bids | 11.0%4.8% to 20.0% | 4.4%in 13 auctions with a clear winner | 76%of those leagues |
| Dallas GoedertTE | 4594 bids | 2.1%middle of all bids | 4.0%1.0% to 6.8% | 4.0%in 17 auctions with a clear winner | 42%of those leagues |
| Kirk CousinsQB | 6090 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 3.0%0.2% to 5.5% | 2.0%in 12 auctions with a clear winner | 27%of those leagues |
| San Francisco 49ersDEF | 118190 bids | 1.0%middle of all bids | 1.2%0.0% to 3.0% | 1.7%in 40 auctions with a clear winner | 40%of those leagues |
| Nico CollinsWR | 545 bids | 15.8%middle of all bids | 29.2%27.3% to 36.8% | 2.6%in 5 auctions with a clear winner | 100%of those leagues |
| Josh JacobsRB | 69 bids | 4.1%middle of all bids | 23.2%15.8% to 26.4% | 12.9%in 2 auctions with a clear winner | 33%of those leagues |
| Tyler HigbeeTE | 5270 bids | 1.0%middle of all bids | 2.0%0.0% to 5.8% | 2.0%in 10 auctions with a clear winner | 29%of those leagues |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | 1537 bids | 2.0%middle of all bids | 6.8%2.4% to 9.8% | 4.0%in 9 auctions with a clear winner | 60%of those leagues |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB | 642 bids | 8.0%middle of all bids | 15.8%14.7% to 19.5% | 1.9%in 6 auctions with a clear winner | 100%of those leagues |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | 515 bids | 2.5%middle of all bids | 18.0%0.6% to 21.2% | 1.6%in 2 auctions with a clear winner | 40%of those leagues |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 729 bids | 8.8%middle of all bids | 12.5%8.1% to 23.9% | 3.0%in 5 auctions with a clear winner | 71%of those leagues |
| Keon ColemanWR | 2951 bids | 3.0%middle of all bids | 3.0%0.0% to 8.3% | 1.0%in 9 auctions with a clear winner | 48%of those leagues |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 732 bids | 6.4%middle of all bids | 11.3%6.4% to 18.8% | 6.0%in 5 auctions with a clear winner | 86%of those leagues |
| Los Angeles RamsDEF | 3861 bids | 0.0%middle of all bids | 2.0%0.0% to 3.0% | 0.0%in 14 auctions with a clear winner | 42%of those leagues |
| Indianapolis ColtsDEF | 150229 bids | 0.3%middle of all bids | 0.5%0.0% to 2.0% | 0.2%in 45 auctions with a clear winner | 35%of those leagues |
| Aaron RodgersQB | 7697 bids | 0.9%middle of all bids | 0.9%0.0% to 4.3% | 0.0%in 11 auctions with a clear winner | 17%of those leagues |
| Keenan AllenWR | 72102 bids | 1.0%middle of all bids | 1.0%0.0% to 3.3% | 0.5%in 16 auctions with a clear winner | 25%of those leagues |
| Spencer ShraderK | 1431 bids | 3.0%middle of all bids | 5.0%1.2% to 6.5% | 3.0%in 9 auctions with a clear winner | 64%of those leagues |
| Corey KinerRB | 3447 bids | 0.6%middle of all bids | 2.0%0.4% to 6.8% | 4.0%in 7 auctions with a clear winner | 21%of those leagues |
| Jameis WinstonQB | 6684 bids | 0.5%middle of all bids | 1.0%0.0% to 4.5% | 2.0%in 11 auctions with a clear winner | 20%of those leagues |
| Tony PollardRB | 530 bids | 4.6%middle of all bids | 13.2%1.7% to 25.7% | 0.6%in 3 auctions with a clear winner | 60%of those leagues |
| Xavier WorthyWR | 2861 bids | 1.6%middle of all bids | 2.4%1.0% to 6.0% | 5.4%in 8 auctions with a clear winner | 32%of those leagues |
| Bryce YoungQB | 1630 bids | 1.7%middle of all bids | 4.1%1.0% to 8.9% | 2.4%in 6 auctions with a clear winner | 38%of those leagues |
Each number is this week against a typical week like it: the same week in 2024 and 2025, from public leagues, weighted to match our mix of superflex and one-QB leagues.
"Two or more bidders" is how often a player drew a real auction instead of being picked up for nothing. When that share rises, people are panicking. "Won by" is how far above the next-best bid the winner landed. A small number means everyone agreed on the price. A big one means the winner could have paid less and still won. "Paid double" is how often the winner bid at least twice the next-highest bid.
| Two or more biddersshare of players | Typical winning bidshare of budget | Won byabove the next-best bid | Paid doubleor more than the next bid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every position5,872 players | 33%+43% vs baseline | 5.0%-20% vs baseline | 2.0%-20% vs baseline | 27%+1% vs baseline |
| RB1,424 players | 36%+11% vs baseline | 7.9%-38% vs baseline | 3.0%-25% vs baseline | 29%-5% vs baseline |
| WR1,536 players | 35%+57% vs baseline | 7.8%+29% vs baseline | 2.7%-10% vs baseline | 25%-5% vs baseline |
| QB600 players | 31%+102% vs baseline | 5.5%+10% vs baseline | 3.0%+20% vs baseline | 29%+15% vs baseline |
| TE646 players | 33%+118% vs baseline | 5.0%+11% vs baseline | 2.0%+0% vs baseline | 34%+50% vs baseline |
In a superflex league a quarterback can also fill the flex spot, so teams need more of them. We keep those leagues apart from one-QB leagues so a quarterback price is never a blend of the two.
| League type | QB priceshare of budget | Two or more bidders |
|---|---|---|
| Superflex104 leagues, 24% of them | 7.0%typical winning QB bid | 35%of QB claims |
| Two-QB7 leagues, 2% of them | 40.0%typical winning QB bid | 20%of QB claims |
| One-QB323 leagues, 74% of them | 5.0%typical winning QB bid | 30%of QB claims |
| Quarterback | Superflexwinning bid | One-QBwinning bid |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20.0%in 6 leagues | 0.9%in 70 leagues |
| Jameis Winston | 10.0%in 12 leagues | 0.3%in 53 leagues |
More claims were contested than usual. 33% of claims had two or more bidders, against 23% in a typical week like this one (+43%).
Winning bids ran lower than usual: a median of 5.0% of budget against 6.2%.
TE drew more competition than usual: 33% of TE claims had two or more bidders, against 15% in a typical week (+118%). The winning TE bid was a median 5.0% of budget, against 4.5%.
Our P60 bid swung more than prices did. When it said under 8% of budget it won 50% of contested claims, and those players took a median 5.7%. When it said 22% or more it won 77%, and those took a median 16.0%. Too low at one end, too high at the other.
Our card led with the contested price on 1,145 claims that ended up drawing a single bidder. The minimum bid would have won every one, so following our number there cost a median 14.4% of budget for nothing.